Appendices

4. Scenario development and voting

Scenario 1:

Summarised as a 'culture of closed standards', scenario 1 envisaged software use in the healthcare domain as being totally
at the mercy of government policy, which had encouraged a monopoly situation, wherein 2-3 large companies dominated, with no opportunity for small and medium sized enterprises, with closed/proprietary standards, and with no room for innovation. This was seen by many as essentially a continuation of the current situation towaqrds which we are heading in England as the NPfIT takes a firm grip on NHS software specification.

What do you believe about the achievability of the culture of closed standards?

Highly Achievable			23%
Achievable				54%
Conceivable				19%
Unachievable				 4%
Almost Impossible			 0%


What do you believe about the desirability of the culture of closed standards?
Extremely Desirable			 0%
Desirable				 8%
Uncommitted				12%
Undesirable				31%
Extremely Undesirable			50%


What do you believe about the Likelihood of the culture of closed standards?
Highly Likely			4%
Likely				42%
Possible			38%
Unlikely				8%
Highly Unlikely			8%
					

Scenario 2:

Summarised as 'different players going at different paces', scenario 2 envisaged each country (within Europe and more widely) setting their own standards, although driven by central government initiatives (as, for example, through NPfIT in England). As a result, there is restriction of how much FLOSS can be introduced in the healthcare domain, as the controlling consortia have incentives to restrict the adoption of anything that might open up the market to new players. The end-result was seen as essentially a continuation of the current situation.

What do you believe about the achievability of different players going at different paces.
Highly Achievable			15%
Achievable				69%
Conceivable				15%
Unachievable				0%
Almost Impossible			0%

					
What do you believe about the desirability of different players going at different paces.
Extremely Desirable			4%
Desirable				38%
Uncommitted				23%
Undesirable				31%
Extremely Undesirable			4%



What do you believe about the Likelihood of different players going at different paces.
Highly Likely			38%
Likely				58%
Possible			 4%
Unlikely				0%
Highly Unlikely			0%
					

Scenario 3:

Summarised as 'full local or regional implementation', this scenario envisaged a bottom-up, local implementation of software to
meet local needs. Software might be proprietary or FLOSS depending on local decisions, and was seen as being a situation that could apply widely across Europe with the aid of European Union policy support.

What do you believe about the achievability of full local regional implementation
Highly Achievable			19%
Achievable				50%
Conceivable				19%
Unachievable				4%
Almost Impossible			8%


What do you believe about the desirability of full local regional implementation
Extremely Desirable			15%
Desirable				61%
Uncommitted				20%
Undesirable				4%
Extremely Undesirable			0%
		

What do you believe about the likelihood of full local regional implementation
Highly Likely			4%
Likely				23%
Possible			35%
Unlikely				35%
Highly Unlikely			4%

Scenario 4:

Summarised as the 'no change' scenario, scenario 4 saw things essentially as they are today, but with some almost imperceptible infiltration of FLOSS at the back end. With a lack of any training environment of FLOSS, there was seen to be little opportunity for organisations to spend budgets on FLOSS.

What do you believe about the achievability of a No Change Scenario

Highly Achievable			46%
Achievable				35%
Conceivable				11%
Unachievable				4%
Almost Impossible			4%
					

What do you believe about the desirability of a No Change Scenario
Extremely Desirable			0%
Desirable				4%
Uncommitted				19%
Undesirable				42%
Extremely Undesirable			35%

	
What do you believe about the Likelihood of a No Change Scenario
Highly Likely			12%
Likely				31%
Possible			35%
Unlikely				19%
Highly Unlikely			4%
					

Scenario 5:

Summarised as the 'steady creep' scenario, scenario 5 saw the gradual development of a situation whereby, after a steady creep in of FLOSS, proprietary solutions interface with and open source environment and general open source applications.

What do you believe about the achievability of a scenario where proprietary applications interface with an Open Source environment and general OS applications?

Highly Achievable			54%
Achievable				27%
Conceivable				15%
Unachievable				 4%
Almost Impossible			0%
					

What do you believe about the desirability of a scenario where proprietary applications interface with an Open Source environment 
and general OS applications?
Extremely Desirable			35%
Desirable				54%
Uncommitted				 8%
Undesirable				4%
Extremely Undesirable			0%


What do you believe about the Likelihood of a scenario where proprietary applications interface with an Open Source environment 
and general OS applications?
Highly Likely			27%
Likely				46%
Possible			12%
Unlikely				15%
Highly Unlikely			0%

Appx5>>

Executive Summary >>>

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Status of this report >>>

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Copyright (c) 2004 IMIA Open Source Working Group and British Computer Society Health Informatics Committee

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, 
Version 1.2  or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and 
no Back-Cover  Texts.  A copy of the license is included in the section entitled "GNU Free Documentation License".